Take a shower in Wales
So it's that time of year again when I take a stab at predictions for the year and I am stating up front for starters, that I intend to bottle any thoughts on Plaid's leadership election or any direct Council election prediction-so there.
A big year for the Middle East. Will the push for democracy create the instability for a two state peace solution? It might just happen, but not until after the US election. A Republican President (I will be delighted to be wrong on this one).
I will have a Plaid County Councillor for the first time in my life.
The Libs will have a dire Council election, largely based on their London actions and not altogether their local management.
Carwyn Jones is facing big problems with the NHS, with his own party as well as local communities.
Further environmental warnings will come from people 'in the know', but the banks will still hold sway and little will be done.
We are facing riots again I'm afraid, as the combination of unemployment, benefits cuts and a clear rich proportion of society largely unaffected - thrown in with a heatwave.
The Olympics will come and go, with London business milking it and at the end of the day, many will be wondering what the hell the point of it all was.
A royal baby arrives-yippy dippy do.
The Euro will still exist, but not with Greece in the current structure.
Andrew RT Davies will be struggling as Tory leader in Wales, with murmurs of a change behind his back.
Welsh rugby will have a very lean year, sadly.
Ed Miliband will fight on, as the problem is now more of message than just leadership.
A lot of household shopping names will go to the wall, fundamentally changing the face of some shopping streets.
The Lib Dems will go into formal coalition with Labour in Wales, but not until after the Council elections.
The Tory/Lib UK coalition will hold together, more due to Labour's ineptitude than anything else.
The black economy in Wales and the UK will expand hugely, as the poorest communities will not be able to cope without it.
There will be more talk of a Welsh 'super dam' in Wales to bail out SE England. Go for it, I say-as long as Boris pays the going rate.
There will be a Welsh housing crisis, with a combination of people losing homes and a complete lack of investment in affordable housing.
Parents will be denied WM education, due to a combination of a lack of funding and Labour's local animosity towards Welsh once again showing its face.
The Malvinas will once again hit the headlines.
yes do hope you're wrong about there being a republican president ian...tho with your excellent track record of predicting the political fates im getting quite worried about the next occupant of the white house now.....did notice tho there's one prediction you omitted.....the one about there being a republican elected as leader of plaid this year!
ReplyDeleteLeigh Richards
swansea
Interesting predictions, I would take issue with a few of them,
ReplyDeleteMiddle East: there will be no push for democracy, the Arab spring will be seen as a repeat of Iran in 1979 as Islamist parties take power and crush any moves towards democracy. They will be more brutal than the secular dictatorships they replaced and for that reason will be impossible to remove.
USA: Obama will be re-elected, or more accurately the establishment will allow him to be re-elected because his moderate image allows him to serve their interests more effectively than the Republicans. Just contrast the amount of criticism he and Bush received.
Plaid: I don't know who they will elect as leader, but predict it will be one of the men. Both women have declared themselves republicans and socialists, and openly argue for independence, Plaid remains a conservative cultural/language party at heart and this will rule them out, remember the leader is elected by its largely conservative rural members not by its activists and bloggers.
They will do very badly in the local elections, they have been declining in every election for years and seem to have put life on hold for their extended leadership election. Once the new leader is elected they will have only a few weeks to try to turn things around, no chance. They may hold up in the heartlands but could well end up with no councillors at all in Cardiff, Swansea, Newport, Bridgend and Wrexham.
some interesting points from welsh agenda but a bit wide of the mark as regards plaid im afraid. The fact that both elin and leanne have declared themselves in favour of independence is hardly likely to harm their leadership chances given that one of plaid's key aims - recently reaffirmed - is to seek independence for wales.
ReplyDelete"Plaid remains a conservative cultural/language party at heart"...again i think welsh agenda is wide of the mark here. Indeed i would argue that such a description could not be applied to plaid for four decades at least...and thats if it ever did apply.
A brief glance at plaid's current policies clearly shows that plaid is a left of centre party with the most progressive economic and social policies of any of the main parties in wales!
Leigh Richards
swansea