2011 Predictions Assessed

Well, I am feeling a little smug about my predictions from last year for 2011 and confidently predict that in 2012, I will come nowhere near as close.

Wales will vote 'yes' in the referendum for clearer powers and we will have a Parliament for the first time in 606 years, or so.

I am so pleased that I got this one right, although it will take many years for Wales to appreciate this. The most important influence of this result was to send a message to London that Wales should not be ignored, whatever Scotland gets up to. Can you imagine London's contempt for us if we had voted no?
HIT

The British AV referendum will vote no, but the Brit coalition will survive the experience and plunder/blunder on.

I voted yes, but not with any particular conviction. I support STV but recognised that this was a step forward if nothing else. This was a compromise that was never going to get support and am bemused why Clegg thought this was a good deal?

HIT

The Assembly election will give no party an overall majority, leading to a new coalition agreement (I'm bottling any other comments on this).

Well, I got the first bit right and would respectfully suggest that the second bit is already in motion-bless you Kirsty.
HIT

Ed Miliband will still be Labour leader, but the membership will realise what a huge mistake they have made (I'm sorry, but there's slow burn and then there's no burn).

Very smug with this one but in all honesty, not all that difficult to get right.
HIT

There will be a new Tory leader in the Assembly.

Not altogether happy with getting this one right, as a Labour election fiddle led to it-directly against real democracy.
HIT

There will be an ever more obvious gap between the right wing agenda in England and the more progressive agenda in the devolved nations.

I'm claiming this one, although Labour's utter paralysis in Wales has not helped my cause.
HIT

The banks will get away with paying big bonuses once more, creating an ever larger wealth gap and perception of a wealth gap, across the UK.

If anything, I have understated this-the illegitimate souls.
HIT

New Zealand will win the Rugby World Cup.

I would have been happy to have got this one wrong, but for an inconsistent refereeing decision from a French Irishman.
HIT

Initial census figures will show a huge fall in Welsh speakers in the north and west, due to immigration from England and a significant rise in the South, due to demand. An overall increase will once again give the language hope and ideas around increasing usage will now be a priority.

Too early, as the figures will not be out until this or even next year.

MISS

The conclusion of the Assembly election will start a new round of policies trying to solve the economic, social and health challenges in the Southern Valley communities. We must get it right this time.

I am very disappointed to have got this one wrong, but Labour have been so inept since taking power that there is no way I could claim a hit on this one.
MISS

S4C will still not regain its independence and the campaign to support it will become increasingly high profile, both within Wales and beyond.

Sadly true, with more to come I suspect.
HIT

There will be a vote passed in London for fewer Welsh MPs, supported by the UK nationalists and in doing so, feeding the campaign for greater devolution by fault rather than by design-bless 'em.

Spot on.
HIT

Peter Black will say something really twp on his blog (a dead cert, this one).

An easy hit.
HIT

Curiously, Labour will become a lot less Welsh once more, on May 7th. Now, why is that?

Yep.
HIT

Oscar will fail to get re-elected, and will fade to obscurity - if they'll have him.

I am very disappointed to have got this one wrong. The South East deserve so much better, in my opinion.
MISS

Leanne Wood AM will be told off by the British press for calling the Queen, Mrs Windsor - again and miss out on an invitation to the big wedding.

No invitation arrived.
MISS

Gwynfor will smile from down on high, when Carmarthen goes all green on May 7th - cementing a political foundation for a career of enormous promise.

I very much regret that I got this one wrong; a huge loss to the Senedd and surely destined to return.

MISS

A Plug for My Local Chip Shop

In these depressing and cynical times, I thought that I would try to stick to my promise of being more positive, a little less tribal (in contrast to the Cheryl & Carwyn Show). Over Christmas, our local chip shop went around to all the local houses and offered a free wrapped present of fish and chips. Now, I do happen to frequent this particular establishment anyway but they showed no favours, knocked on all the doors and handed over for free their always rather generous portions of fish & chips.

Now, credit where it is due and it certainly added to the festive spirit already permeating our sprog-filled household. So, my family sends a big Blwyddyn Newydd Dda to:

the GRANGE FISH BAR.

Diolch boys!

It's Hard to be Positive About 2012

I am determined to be more positive on this blog in 2012, even if it does mean me biting me tongue sometimes. Yet, it is going to be a horrendous year for many within Wales, as the public sector cuts really start to bite from April 1st onwards. As the former British labour Chancellor Allistair Darling recently stated, the current state of the economy is potentially even worse than the original recession in 2008, as there is now realisation that the private sector cannot fill the gaps left by the public sector job losses. There will actually be cases where people still in full time employment will be close to losing their homes due to cuts to their pay and conditions. I have never seen this before in my working life.

So on the positive side, there's always the Queens Diamond Jubilee and the London Olympics. Good grief, this positive blogging thing is going to be harder than I thought.

'the Times' are a Changing

I try not to invest in the Murdoch media empire but chose to get a copy of the Times today, as I had heard a rumour that it had given both Wales and Scotland a mention, for a change.

For Wales, it related to the fact that local business people in Carmarthenshire are proposing a potential new holiday village predominately for the Chinese tourist market. The article started with a deeply patronising attempt to be 'tongue in cheek' about the whole issue, followed by an almost equally patronising article further inside the paper. In other words, it was yet another effort to put down Wales, although in doing so recognising that the business proposal was rather a good idea. (We are not a Principality as the Prince of Wales plays no role in our Government, so please refrain from using this phrase, Mr Murdoch).

Then came Scotland, where the title 'How Scotland Got Brave About Independence' gives a hint that the following two page article would show a bit more respect for the other celtic neighbour. There was general recognition for the clever campaigning efforts of the SNP, the funding that helped run it, the strong leadership inspiring Scotland and the disastrous approach of the British parties in response to the drive for Independence. The contrast could not be clearer.

Of course, there are many lessons to be learnt here not only for Plaid but for Wales as a whole. With an already faltering Labour party in Wales and a Plaid leadership campaign kicking off in the new year together with the completion of a review into the party's future priorities, there has never been a better time for Plaid to once more lead Wales' political agenda and frankly, our nation needs Plaid to do so. We are facing a double dip recession with a British Government cutting aggressively, a Labour British Opposition offering no alternative through a fundamentally weak leader and a Labour party in Wales that appears content in Government, so long as it is not asked to do all that much.

There is much work to be done but it is great to see our friends in Scotland,  not only challenging but defeating the failed British political mantra. Now all Plaid needs is a lottery winner!

A BNP Anus Horribilis

I am loathed to even mention such a pathetic bunch of fascists on my blog so close to Christmas, but I have been inspired by watching a DVD of Secret Army - so what the hell!

The BNP have had a dreadful year and I make no apology for the above spelling choice. As with all extremist organisations, they hold together when they are on the rise but once they have peaked, it all falls apart and boy, what a mess they are in. They are pretty well bankrupt, have lost most of their Councillors and are split all over the place and yet, their convicted racist leader Nick Griffin still pretends that all is well. Titanic analogies are frankly understating events.

So why mention them now? Well, I have a friend who in error, receives very regular e-mail updates from them and they are often a hilarious read. They are currently on a strong membership drive and to belong to this particular bunch of 'johnny no mates', it costs £48 a year or £90 if you want a family fascist package. There is also the £98 overseas package, but I assume that there certain requirements to this specific membership - skin pigment etc. Of course, they do keep it in the family as their membership secretary is none other than 'Jen Matthys'; their very own leader's daughter. Bless!

To do something constructive, you could always join the UK's leading anti-fascist organisation. 'Hope not Hate' have done more than any other group to expose the BNP, the EDL and other racist/fascist groupings based in the UK and I am proud to be associated with them. So why not make a new year's resolution, sign up with 'Hope not hate' and ensure that the likes of the BNP stay well and truly under the rock which they crawled out from under.

 http://www.hopenothate.org.uk//?page=home

Will Union Leaders Sell Out?

Hands up if you still want union money after shafting them?

Rumours are already rife that a deal is coming with some if not all public sector unions in relation to the current pension dispute, but I suspect that there will be some very bitter pills for union members to swallow.

As anticipated, the Tories and Libs have dealt with all the different groupings individually, which is fair enough as the different pension schemes vary widely. There appears to be an attempt to buy off members looking to retire in the next ten years by giving them a level of protection. There will also be a move to bring in average rather than final salary schemes which in reality was never the main sticking point. The crunch will come with the additional contributions and this is where I am very concerned about what is being agreed.

I wait to see how/if there will be any changes to these huge increases, but the rumours are that members will be stopped from opting out of their pension. The problem comes if some members simply cannot afford the increase. Do they lose their home to pay their pension? Plaid has been the only party in Wales not only to give its 100% support to the public sector workers in their dispute, but has consistently made the point that the consequences of the original proposals would be the collapse of these schemes rather than the support of them, as many would pull out or not join due to affordability. So there appears to have been recognition of this issue, but will there also be a reduction in the increase?

All in all, I do not expect another UK wide strike as many of the union leaders appear to want a deal in the New year. However, I sincerely hope that these leaders do not concede too much, as they may find a lot more members leaving than have joined in recent weeks. Of course, it would have helped if the leader of the UK Opposition and his MPs had supported the strikers, instead of sitting on the fence. Did you know for instance that all but 4 Labour Welsh MPs crossed the Westminster picket line on strike day? I bet that they don't put that in their next community leaflet and I know who you all are, by the way.

London Bias Starting to Annoy the English

Hands up if you are conning everywhere outside London?

Plaid has consistently pointed out that the Westminster Government is conning not only Wales but the rest of the UK, in terms of public spending per head in London. Despite Jeremy Paxman's hilarious protestations, London actually gets more public spending per head than Wales, even though it happens to be one of the richest regions of Western Europe. Well, now the rest of England is waking up to the con.

The government spends more money on transport projects for Londoners than on those for the rest of the country combined, a think tank says. The Institute for Public Policy Research North says £2,700 is spent per person in London compared with £5 per head in the north-east of England.

This spending bias is of course based on the old adage/lie that by spending vast quantities of cash in London, the rest of the state benefits because it is the capital. What a pile of old crap. Sadly, this lie as with so many other policies, is pushed just as hard by Labour when in power than by the Tories and Libs. Not only is it further evidence that the current devolution settlement is flawed for Wales and Scotland but that above all, the rest of England needs and deserves devolution.

There is always the tired old argument about the NE of England turning down devolution when it was offered, when of course they were offered a system that took powers from Councils rather than devolving from London. While some of this spending in London relates to the Olympics, again there was no 'barnett consequential' to Wales as we are apparently gaining from this 'national spend.' Hmmmmmmm

I am a firm supporter of English devolution and want to see the regions (and nations-Kernow) have a strong voice, but surely this is yet more evidence that whichever party is in power in London, they put the capital first and Wales loses. Labour have and would continue to do exactly the same.

Irish 1 - Ignorance 0

Nollaig Shona Duit

It's Christmas and the season of goodwill to all men/women. It is a time when people are supposed to forget their differences and just get on, even if it's fake and only until the New Year. Our two youngest go to a wonderful nursery in Butetown, where they are greeted every morning by posters welcoming them in dozens of languages ; with several of those languages being spoken by the children and their parents who use the nursery.

So how could anyone be offended by something as innocuous as a Christmas greeting, in a language that is actually spoken and originates from the very nation where it is displayed? You would have to be particularly twp and frankly ignorant don't you think, to describe such a greeting as 'gobbledegook' in such circumstances.

The above greeting translates as 'Happy Christmas' in Irish and is currently displayed outside Belfast City Hall. Before the black shirts of the Taxpayers Alliance start moaning about public money wasted, it was actually paid for by the West Belfast Language Centre. David Browne of the UUP who has described Irish as "gobbledygook" said the decision was "an act of bad faith".

"The Irish language or Ulster Scots, it's all gobbledygook to me. The more polite way is to say that I don't understand it," he said.

I realise that bigotry runs deep in the North of Ireland on both sides of the religious divide, but this is such a p.r. disaster for the Unionist cause. If this was in say French, Spanish or Chinese, do you think that Mr Browne would have the same sentiments? From my experience in politics, publicising your own ignorance is never a shrewd move. So my message to Mr Browne and all his ilk is: -

Nadolig Llawen a Blwyddyn Newydd Dda

What is twp in Irish, or Ulster Scots for that matter?

Fab Four Line Up for Plaid

They will hate me for the above title, but I am delighted with the spread of candidates now declared for the Plaid leadership campaign, ready to kick off in the new year. Tonight, Leanne Wood AM has declared that she is running, adding to the list of Elin Jones AM, Dafydd Elis Thomas AM and Simon Thomas AM. All four are experienced politicians in their own right, who offer different skills and political perspectives, which is why the leadership campaign should be an exciting one, and a great platform for the future of the party.

With the report into the future direction of the party being completed in the New Year and a desperate need for some direction in Welsh politics after Labour have predictably ground to a halt, this contest could not come at a better time. I look forward to some passionate debates, plenty of vision and ideas and above all, a new leader who can take on the mantle of Ieuan and take Wales forward with confidence.

If you are a lapsed party member or are interested in taking Wales forward instead of 'standing still for Wales' as appears to be the current Labour mantra, then follow the link below, join up, get involved and have a vote on who you want to lead Plaid and Wales. There are no block votes in Plaid, where every member has the same say as the next, so what are you waiting for?

https://www.english.plaidcymru.org/join/

Do You Buy Welsh?

Made & processed in Wales - the real thing

It's that time of year again, when we spend more money than we have on things that we would normally never dream of buying. Christmas is primarily a religious festival but in reality, is chance to catch up with family and friends and an almighty spend fest.

What has become clear this year more than any other is that internet shopping is going to close down an awful lot of shops in the new year. I am typing this blog on a new laptop, purchased in a UK wide based shop that has had many customers, but very few purchasers. Many shops are now nothing more than brief stopping points for shoppers who want to check their potential product, prior to buying them on the net.

So if you are keen to buy Welsh this Christmas in order to support local businesses and keep them open, what can you buy? Well, the most obvious products are food and booze. These are products which we most certainly over-indulge in at this time of year and the good news is that we make world class products at decent prices. For instance, we make beers that are as good as anything else on the market, we even make single malt whisky and as for food products, why buy from anywhere else?

Believe it or not, but certain UK supermarkets are not cheaper than your local grocer, butcher or baker and with respect, the supermarket products are more often than not inferior. Simple things like swapping to Welsh cheese, Welsh dairy milk (not the so-called Welsh milk that is treated and bottled in England), Welsh butter and a local baker cost no less, yet make one hell of a difference to our local economy.

So when you go out over the next week to spend, spend, spend, try to shop local and look for local products. Your choices could make all the difference to local businesses.

Conservative Party - the Real Separatists

I have had a week off blogging, partly for sanity's sake, partly due to a knackered p.c. and also, due to not knowing what to say about the implications of Cameron's decision in Europe. I have come to a conclusion - Wales is in big trouble and party political separatism is the problem.

Going into a negotiation without any carrots and wielding a big stick, is never likely to yield positive results or win any friends. More to the point, Cameron has been boasting that his decision will protect the City of London, yet it will do nothing of the sort as any decisions made by the 26 other Euro states could hit the UK without us having any say whatsoever.

Wales is particularly vulnerable as it has far greater reliance on manufacturing than the UK as a whole; an area that could really suffer from last week's decision. Some anti-European Tories appear to be blissfully unaware that our biggest trading partner is Germany and not the US.

What has been more disappointing than anything has been the delayed and relatively muted reaction from Labour both in Wales and London. The Libs and Tories had precious time to get their lines sorted out before Labour reacted with any force, again emphasising Ed Miliband's inability to play the role of an effective opposition. It is now very clear that as bad as 2011 has been, 2012 will be worse and the inevitable double dip recession is about to spring upon us. I am trying to be more cheerful in my blogging output, but the current economic crisis is worse than anything I have lived through and despite devolution, Wales is extremely vulnerable to the ineptitude of this UK Government.

My Boy Wants to Be Shane Bach!

A Welsh & World Rugby Legend

My 6 year old has been watching rugby on TV in recent months, mainly due to the world cup. As a former player, I have not been one to actively encourage him as I spent more time in hospital than on the pitch, so my memories of the great game are mixed. Yet, it has been fascinating to see our eldest pick up inspitation from watching Shane Williams play. His reaction is probably more down to our reaction when watching him side-step and put the 'after-burners' on, but even in that context, it shows how such a special rugby talent can benefit the game-by inspiring others to play and yes, play the 'Welsh way'.

The 'Welsh way' is a bit of a naff phrase to me, but I do wonder sometimes if talented English players are discouraged from expressing themselves on the pitch (unlike my experience in Wales), for they should be doing so much better than they are, with their money and player base. As for Shane Williams, well all I can say of him is at times, he reminds me so much of Gerald Davies at his best. Now, you can't pay a bigger compliment than that. Diolch Shane. You have been an inspiration to a whole new generation of Welsh players.

Is Carwyn 'Dealing with the Devil'?

Carywn & Cameron's Plan for the Gwent Levels?

The real problem with painting one of your political opponents as the 'devil incarnate' is that there could well be a situation in the future, where you have to do a deal with the devil. Then along comes the potential of further transport funding for Wales, if Labour spend it in areas to suit the Tories in London.

It is fair to say that a 50% cut in our capital spend, does somewhat limit Carwyn's options in terms of transport spending, so what options does he have? Well, he has been forwarded (not given as it is ours, you know!) an additional £250 million as part of the UK Government additional spend, and there is also the question of what to do with the Severn toll. With the Humber tolls being halved by Cameron, the pressure is on to do something with the Severn toll, but there is no way that Cameron will help out, unless he gets what he wants from additional spend. So here is a theory for you: -

Enough cash is cobbled together between Cardiff and London to re-launch the M4 relief road, using a combination of WG capital transport spend, additional cash, UK cash and further tolling to pay for it. The Tories would be delighted with this, as it could incorporate private finance by paying back through tolling and build a very big road. Labour would spin it by claiming that this was great for the Welsh economy etc as a huge transport investment creating new jobs and improving our infrastructure.

So what are the drawbacks? Well for starters, the whole cost of the full relief road has been porjected as £1 billion; an absolutely massive outlay for a small length of road. Secondly, it would rip through several SSSI sites and wreck any spurious claim that Labour had any green credentials and finally, it would move the congestion a few miles west, to the east of Cardiff, creating further demand for more road building to complete the Cardiff ring road (priced at £150 million no less than 11 years ago, so you can add a little to that). The actual scheme would also not necessarily create huge mumbers of Welsh jobs, as many of the subcontrctors and materials would be supplied form across the border.

From my sources within the industry, I am convinced that there is a potential deal going down here between Labour and the Tories. If a deal is good for Wales then I have no issue with this. However, such a scheme would be an environmental nightmare that would just perpetuate further huge road schemes, when there are so many other areas where very limited capital spend is required. Plaid's Ieuan Wyn Jones was the first Welsh Transport Minister to spend more than 50% of his budge on sustainable/public transport and knocked on the head the full relief road scheme, proposing a cheaper and more sustainable solution. It will be interesting to see if Labour in Wales try to seek a Welsh solution, or a dated UK solution that creates far more problems than it solves. Let's see which way Carwyn jumps, and how he explains his 'demonic dealings' if he does work with you know who.