2011 Predictions Assessed

Well, I am feeling a little smug about my predictions from last year for 2011 and confidently predict that in 2012, I will come nowhere near as close.

Wales will vote 'yes' in the referendum for clearer powers and we will have a Parliament for the first time in 606 years, or so.

I am so pleased that I got this one right, although it will take many years for Wales to appreciate this. The most important influence of this result was to send a message to London that Wales should not be ignored, whatever Scotland gets up to. Can you imagine London's contempt for us if we had voted no?
HIT

The British AV referendum will vote no, but the Brit coalition will survive the experience and plunder/blunder on.

I voted yes, but not with any particular conviction. I support STV but recognised that this was a step forward if nothing else. This was a compromise that was never going to get support and am bemused why Clegg thought this was a good deal?

HIT

The Assembly election will give no party an overall majority, leading to a new coalition agreement (I'm bottling any other comments on this).

Well, I got the first bit right and would respectfully suggest that the second bit is already in motion-bless you Kirsty.
HIT

Ed Miliband will still be Labour leader, but the membership will realise what a huge mistake they have made (I'm sorry, but there's slow burn and then there's no burn).

Very smug with this one but in all honesty, not all that difficult to get right.
HIT

There will be a new Tory leader in the Assembly.

Not altogether happy with getting this one right, as a Labour election fiddle led to it-directly against real democracy.
HIT

There will be an ever more obvious gap between the right wing agenda in England and the more progressive agenda in the devolved nations.

I'm claiming this one, although Labour's utter paralysis in Wales has not helped my cause.
HIT

The banks will get away with paying big bonuses once more, creating an ever larger wealth gap and perception of a wealth gap, across the UK.

If anything, I have understated this-the illegitimate souls.
HIT

New Zealand will win the Rugby World Cup.

I would have been happy to have got this one wrong, but for an inconsistent refereeing decision from a French Irishman.
HIT

Initial census figures will show a huge fall in Welsh speakers in the north and west, due to immigration from England and a significant rise in the South, due to demand. An overall increase will once again give the language hope and ideas around increasing usage will now be a priority.

Too early, as the figures will not be out until this or even next year.

MISS

The conclusion of the Assembly election will start a new round of policies trying to solve the economic, social and health challenges in the Southern Valley communities. We must get it right this time.

I am very disappointed to have got this one wrong, but Labour have been so inept since taking power that there is no way I could claim a hit on this one.
MISS

S4C will still not regain its independence and the campaign to support it will become increasingly high profile, both within Wales and beyond.

Sadly true, with more to come I suspect.
HIT

There will be a vote passed in London for fewer Welsh MPs, supported by the UK nationalists and in doing so, feeding the campaign for greater devolution by fault rather than by design-bless 'em.

Spot on.
HIT

Peter Black will say something really twp on his blog (a dead cert, this one).

An easy hit.
HIT

Curiously, Labour will become a lot less Welsh once more, on May 7th. Now, why is that?

Yep.
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Oscar will fail to get re-elected, and will fade to obscurity - if they'll have him.

I am very disappointed to have got this one wrong. The South East deserve so much better, in my opinion.
MISS

Leanne Wood AM will be told off by the British press for calling the Queen, Mrs Windsor - again and miss out on an invitation to the big wedding.

No invitation arrived.
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Gwynfor will smile from down on high, when Carmarthen goes all green on May 7th - cementing a political foundation for a career of enormous promise.

I very much regret that I got this one wrong; a huge loss to the Senedd and surely destined to return.

MISS